Several weeks ago, I read The Long Emergency by James Kunstler. Kunstler is a critic of suburbia and in addition to his books, he has a blog with the rather blunt title Clusterfuck Nation.
The gist of Kunstler's argument in The Long Emergency is that the American suburban lifestyle will soon become unsustainable because it depends on a finite supply of cheap oil to sustain it. "The key to understanding what is about to happen to us," he writes on page 24, "is contained in the concept of global oil production peak. This is the point at which we have extracted half of all the oil that has ever existed in the world-the half that was easiest to get, the half that was most economically obtained, the half that was the highest quality and cheapest to refine."
With that, what Kunstler derides as our "happy motoring" way of life and the days of the "3,000 mile caesar salad" will soon be coming to an end. But what about alternatives to fossile fuels like wind power, solar power or biofuels? Nonsense, retorts Kunstler. "Based on everything we know right now, no combination of so-called alternative fuels or energy procedures will allow us to maintain daily life in the United States the way we have been accustomed to running it under the regime of oil." Why? "To some degree, all of the non-fossil fuel energy sources actually depend on an underlying fossil fuel economy. You can't manufacture metal wind turbines using wind energy technology. You can't make lead-acid storage batteries for solar electric systems using any known solar energy system."
But in the chapter that Kunstler devotes to deconstructing fossil fuel alternatives, the part that I found the most amusing was where he writes about a company called Changing World Technologies, which claimed that it could make oil from turkey guts via a process called thermal depolymerization. "The company's first commercially scaled plant, a $20 million installation in Carthage, Missouri, was built next to a ConAgra Foods Butterball Turkey processing factory. Company spokespersons claimed that they would ultimately make oil by this method for $10 a barrel in 2003 dollars." This made me think of the end of the first Back to the Future movie, wherein Doc Brown powers his flying Delorean with the McFly family's household trash. Kunstler goes on to to dismiss it with "Anything that sounds too good to be true usually is."
And, as recent events demonstrated, it was too good to be true. Last week I read this article, which reported that Changing World Technologies was filing for bankruptcy. From the article:
Renewable diesel fuel from the Carthage plant cost more than $11.18 a gallon to make, yet Changing World was only able to sell it for an average $1.19 last year, the filings reported. Since it began operations in 1999, the company posted accumulated losses of $117.9 million, including $60 million in the last three years.
The Carthage plant also was the subject of odor complaints from residents and state officials, who hit it with a cease-and-desist order and fines and required odor-reducing retrofits. The plant suffered from regular shutdowns - it was 80 percent operational at best, the company said. When it wasn't operating, Changing World had to pay to "divert or dispose of [turkey parts] that we received but were unable to store or process."
The claim that the plant would also be able to self-produce all the fuel needed to heat the diesel-making animal parts turned out to be optimistic. Last year alone, the company spent $900,000 to buy natural gas, nearly 7 percent of its total cost of goods sold.
In a 2004 Newsday interview, Appel predicted the company would have 10 big plants across the United States by 2009.
So, it looks like leftover turkey parts are not going to help us reduce our dependence on imported oil.
Back to Kunstler, I can't say if the dire picture he paints for us is going to come to pass or not. Generally being optimistic by nature, I like to think that we will find a way to muddle through. And yet, at the same time, if I as an atheist am skeptical about faith claims when it comes to religion, shouldn't I also be skeptical about having faith that some technological solution will be found that will provide us and our children with cheap and abundant clean energy in the coming decades? The answer of course is yes, I should be skeptical, though I would not assume the worst either. At the very least, I can do my part to try and reduce my use of fossil fuels and educate myself on energy issues so that I can be an informed advocate.
Showing posts with label End of cheap oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label End of cheap oil. Show all posts
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Sunday, December 07, 2008
UPDATED: How About Those Gasoline Prices? - The Dream Has Almost Come True!
Since my last post on this topic on November 2, the price of gasoline has continued to drop. If you recall, in the dream I had this past August, the price of regular unleaded had fallen to $1.75. At the time, and until quite recently, I thought there was absolutely no chance of my dream coming true.
Well, I am happy to report that as of yesterday morning, the price of regular unleaded gasoline at the BP station at the corner of Woodbury Road and South Oyster Bay Road has dropped to 1.99 per gallon. The price need only drop another 24 cents per gallon for the dream to be realized. We shall see.
UPDATE: As of December 12, the price of regular unleaded has fallen to $1.89 per gallon. Just 14 more cents to go for the dream to come true!
Well, I am happy to report that as of yesterday morning, the price of regular unleaded gasoline at the BP station at the corner of Woodbury Road and South Oyster Bay Road has dropped to 1.99 per gallon. The price need only drop another 24 cents per gallon for the dream to be realized. We shall see.
UPDATE: As of December 12, the price of regular unleaded has fallen to $1.89 per gallon. Just 14 more cents to go for the dream to come true!
Sunday, November 02, 2008
How About Those Gasoline Prices? - Will The Dream Come True?
Back on August 17, 2008, when the price of gasoline was starting to inch down a bit, I wrote this post, in which I described a dream that I had.
"In that dream, I went out of my house one day and noticed something that completely astounded me. If I recall correctly, in the dream I was walking with my wife up the road to nearby Woodbury Plaza, and in the distance I saw the price sign on display at the BP gasoline station. What caught my attention was the price that was advertised for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline. It read $1.75 per gallon."
As I wrote at the time, the chances of that happening were extremely far-fetched. A little over a month later, on September 28, 2008, I commented again on the decline in gasoline prices. I ventured the following:
"I am going to go out on a limb a bit and predict that we will continue to see a decline in the price of gasoline, absent some catastrophic event, in the next 3 or 4 weeks. American motorists are driving less, and the prospect of a prolonged downturn in the economy will also serve to depress demand. I believe it is possible that the price per gallon here in my part of Nassau County might even dip below $3.50 per gallon for a brief period."
Well, in the month that followed, prices have fallen even further than I would have dared to hope for. There are gas stations in my neighborhood that are now selling regular unleaded at 2.69 a gallon. The price for a gallon of regular unleaded need only drop another 94 cents in order for my aforementioned dream to come true. Still, I am doubtful the price will fall that far, though it would really blow my mind if it did.
One of the concerns I have, as I wrote before on this topic, is that as welcome as the drop in price is, it could also result in the public going back to its old carefree driving habits. People might even start buying Hummers again in the mistaken belief that things are "normal" again. That would be a big mistake, as a rise in fuel consumption will cause gasoline prices to rise above $4.00 per gallon once more. As I also wrote before, conservation efforts will slacken as colder temperatures descend on us. How many people want to ride their bicycles on a cold, windy day, or even worse, during a freezing rain?
I don't know how long gasoline will continue to fall or stay where it is, though I would venture a guess that by winter, regular unleaded will be back over $3.00 a gallon again. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, but not by going on joyrides!
"In that dream, I went out of my house one day and noticed something that completely astounded me. If I recall correctly, in the dream I was walking with my wife up the road to nearby Woodbury Plaza, and in the distance I saw the price sign on display at the BP gasoline station. What caught my attention was the price that was advertised for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline. It read $1.75 per gallon."
As I wrote at the time, the chances of that happening were extremely far-fetched. A little over a month later, on September 28, 2008, I commented again on the decline in gasoline prices. I ventured the following:
"I am going to go out on a limb a bit and predict that we will continue to see a decline in the price of gasoline, absent some catastrophic event, in the next 3 or 4 weeks. American motorists are driving less, and the prospect of a prolonged downturn in the economy will also serve to depress demand. I believe it is possible that the price per gallon here in my part of Nassau County might even dip below $3.50 per gallon for a brief period."
Well, in the month that followed, prices have fallen even further than I would have dared to hope for. There are gas stations in my neighborhood that are now selling regular unleaded at 2.69 a gallon. The price for a gallon of regular unleaded need only drop another 94 cents in order for my aforementioned dream to come true. Still, I am doubtful the price will fall that far, though it would really blow my mind if it did.
One of the concerns I have, as I wrote before on this topic, is that as welcome as the drop in price is, it could also result in the public going back to its old carefree driving habits. People might even start buying Hummers again in the mistaken belief that things are "normal" again. That would be a big mistake, as a rise in fuel consumption will cause gasoline prices to rise above $4.00 per gallon once more. As I also wrote before, conservation efforts will slacken as colder temperatures descend on us. How many people want to ride their bicycles on a cold, windy day, or even worse, during a freezing rain?
I don't know how long gasoline will continue to fall or stay where it is, though I would venture a guess that by winter, regular unleaded will be back over $3.00 a gallon again. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, but not by going on joyrides!
Sunday, September 28, 2008
How About Those Gasoline Prices? Another Election Season Dip?
I'm sorry I haven't had anything new in over a week. Been busy. Today was a rather dreary day. Rain. Sun. Rain. Sun. More rain. At least the Yankees managed to beat the Red Sox (apologies to any of my readers who might be from the Boston area!).
The two year anniversary of this blog is coming up on September 30, so I will of course have to do the obligatory post on that.
But on to the topic at hand, which is gasoline prices. A couple of weeks ago, I noted a rise in the price of gasoline after having declined noticeably for the previous several weeks. The increase was attributed to the effects of hurricanes Ike and Gustav, which shuttered refining activity in the Gulf of Mexico. In that post, the most extreme rise in price was at an Exxon station down the road, which shot up 40 cents a gallon virtually overnight.
In the comments section of that post, I noted that a week or so later, the station suddenly changed from Exxon to Gulf, and the price also dropped. As of today, it is back where it was prior to the increase, at $3.70 per gallon. I stopped by there today and it only cost me $12 to fill the tank from three quarters to full.
The question now is, can the price at the pump get any lower? In 2006, there was a big dip in the price around October and early November. I recall that some conspiracy theorists claimed that it was done on purpose by the oil companies to help the Republicans maintain their control of Congress. Well, the Republicans lost their majorities in both the House and the Senate, so it didn't work, assuming the prices were artificially rigged. And sure enough, the prices did start to rise again shortly after Election Day. Then again, I also remember the price of gasoline noticeably dropped in the autumn of 2005, when there were no presidential or congressional elections going on, so it seems to me the fluctuation in price is more of a seasonal thing, though if that is the case, then last year bucked the trend.
Still, I am going to go out on a limb a bit and predict that we will continue to see a decline in the price of gasoline, absent some catastrophic event, in the next 3 or 4 weeks. American motorists are driving less, and the prospect of a prolonged downturn in the economy will also serve to depress demand. I believe it is possible that the price per gallon here in my part of Nassau County might even dip below $3.50 per gallon for a brief period. However, it won't last for a number of reasons. One reason, the approach of winter means that more of our petroleum supplies will be refined into home heating oil.
Furthermore, with the weather getting colder and the sun setting earlier, fuel conservation efforts will suffer. From my own perspective, it will harder to do errands by bicycle or walk to my local supermarket for food shopping on days that are cold and rainy. In such situations, driving is much more attractive.
If we have a very cold winter season, the price of home heating oil could go through the roof, and it will take a heavy toll on the budgets of many homeowners. Things could get ugly.
The two year anniversary of this blog is coming up on September 30, so I will of course have to do the obligatory post on that.
But on to the topic at hand, which is gasoline prices. A couple of weeks ago, I noted a rise in the price of gasoline after having declined noticeably for the previous several weeks. The increase was attributed to the effects of hurricanes Ike and Gustav, which shuttered refining activity in the Gulf of Mexico. In that post, the most extreme rise in price was at an Exxon station down the road, which shot up 40 cents a gallon virtually overnight.
In the comments section of that post, I noted that a week or so later, the station suddenly changed from Exxon to Gulf, and the price also dropped. As of today, it is back where it was prior to the increase, at $3.70 per gallon. I stopped by there today and it only cost me $12 to fill the tank from three quarters to full.
The question now is, can the price at the pump get any lower? In 2006, there was a big dip in the price around October and early November. I recall that some conspiracy theorists claimed that it was done on purpose by the oil companies to help the Republicans maintain their control of Congress. Well, the Republicans lost their majorities in both the House and the Senate, so it didn't work, assuming the prices were artificially rigged. And sure enough, the prices did start to rise again shortly after Election Day. Then again, I also remember the price of gasoline noticeably dropped in the autumn of 2005, when there were no presidential or congressional elections going on, so it seems to me the fluctuation in price is more of a seasonal thing, though if that is the case, then last year bucked the trend.
Still, I am going to go out on a limb a bit and predict that we will continue to see a decline in the price of gasoline, absent some catastrophic event, in the next 3 or 4 weeks. American motorists are driving less, and the prospect of a prolonged downturn in the economy will also serve to depress demand. I believe it is possible that the price per gallon here in my part of Nassau County might even dip below $3.50 per gallon for a brief period. However, it won't last for a number of reasons. One reason, the approach of winter means that more of our petroleum supplies will be refined into home heating oil.
Furthermore, with the weather getting colder and the sun setting earlier, fuel conservation efforts will suffer. From my own perspective, it will harder to do errands by bicycle or walk to my local supermarket for food shopping on days that are cold and rainy. In such situations, driving is much more attractive.
If we have a very cold winter season, the price of home heating oil could go through the roof, and it will take a heavy toll on the budgets of many homeowners. Things could get ugly.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
How About Those Gasoline Prices? The Ike Effect
Like I suppose the rest of you who drive have been doing, I have been drawing some modest satisfaction from the recent dip in gasoline prices. While the lowest price in my neighborhood was 3.70 per gallon, still a dime higher than when I first blogged about the rise in gasoline prices back in April, it was still a welcome relief from the 4.30 plus per gallon I was shelling out during the better part of the last three or four months.
Imagine my shock then when I was riding my bicycle to my mom's this evening and I saw the price of regular unleaded at the Exxon at the corner of South Oyster Bay Road and Old Country Road had shot up to 4.10 a gallon, after having been as low as 3.70 just a couple of days ago.
"WTF?" I thought to myself. What was really weird about it though is that the Hess station right across the street from the Exxon station was charging 3.74 for a gallon of regular unleaded, the same as the BP station up the road at the corner of South Oyster Bay Road and Woodbury Road. I can't imagine that there were many people who opted to fill up their tanks at the Exxon station.
I surmised that the price increase might be due to the Hurricane Ike, which recently hit the Texas coast, along with the after effects of Hurricane Gustav. Sure enough, I found confirmation from this article in Newsday, which reported that:
Some big refineries along the Gulf Coast had been shut for nearly two weeks following Hurricane Gustav.
Power outages caused by Ike threatened to keep millions of gallons of gasoline output idled for at least several days.
I feel bad for motorists who have to drive long distances to go to work or tend to ill family members and such. After getting a little bit of relief in their wallets, it would be a shame to see the recent trend in declining gasoline prices come to an end. If it is a temporary spike, I hope to be able to ride it out, as I drove a lot less this past week and still have over three quarters of a tank in my car. The price spike might also serve as a dash of cold water in the faces of those who started getting complacent in their fuel conservation efforts in the wake of the recent price decline.
Imagine my shock then when I was riding my bicycle to my mom's this evening and I saw the price of regular unleaded at the Exxon at the corner of South Oyster Bay Road and Old Country Road had shot up to 4.10 a gallon, after having been as low as 3.70 just a couple of days ago.
"WTF?" I thought to myself. What was really weird about it though is that the Hess station right across the street from the Exxon station was charging 3.74 for a gallon of regular unleaded, the same as the BP station up the road at the corner of South Oyster Bay Road and Woodbury Road. I can't imagine that there were many people who opted to fill up their tanks at the Exxon station.
I surmised that the price increase might be due to the Hurricane Ike, which recently hit the Texas coast, along with the after effects of Hurricane Gustav. Sure enough, I found confirmation from this article in Newsday, which reported that:
Some big refineries along the Gulf Coast had been shut for nearly two weeks following Hurricane Gustav.
Power outages caused by Ike threatened to keep millions of gallons of gasoline output idled for at least several days.
I feel bad for motorists who have to drive long distances to go to work or tend to ill family members and such. After getting a little bit of relief in their wallets, it would be a shame to see the recent trend in declining gasoline prices come to an end. If it is a temporary spike, I hope to be able to ride it out, as I drove a lot less this past week and still have over three quarters of a tank in my car. The price spike might also serve as a dash of cold water in the faces of those who started getting complacent in their fuel conservation efforts in the wake of the recent price decline.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
How About Those Gasoline Prices - Part 2
Early Saturday morning I had a dream. In that dream, I went out of my house one day and noticed something that completely astounded me. If I recall correctly, in the dream I was walking with my wife up the road to nearby Woodbury Plaza, and in the distance I saw the price sign on display at the BP gasoline station. What caught my attention was the price that was advertised for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline. It read $1.75 per gallon.
In the dream, I turned to my wife and asked her, "What the hell happened to cause the price of gasoline to go down so much? I don't understand how this is possible!"
That's about all I remember from the dream.
Anyway, this past July 11, I got an e-mail from my congressional representative Steve Israel with the catchy title "Dropping Gasoline Prices in Two Weeks or Less." In his e-mail, Representative Israel announces:
Reducing gas prices in two weeks? It’s entirely possible. And no, it doesn’t depend on a massive production increase from Saudi Arabia, or even additional drilling—which wouldn’t give us a price reduction for five to ten years.
All we need to do is draw down a limited portion of the oil in our country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and prices will drop dramatically. Most importantly, the effect will be immediate- unlike drilling on the continental shelf or in Alaska, which will take nearly a decade to have a significant impact.
The SPR currently holds over 700 million barrels of oil- it’s highest capacity in history! Why are we hording such a massive reserve of oil when gas prices continue to rise at an intolerable rate? According to the Department of Energy, oil from SPR deployment would enter the market in less than 2 weeks. Why wait 10 years when we can have results now?
While I appreciate Representative Israel's concern about the price of gasoline, the fact is, since he sent out the above-cited e-mail, we have had results without tapping the SPR. I don't recall the exact peak price in my neighborhood, but I believe it was over $4.30 per gallon for regular unleaded. After hitting a record of $147 per barrel, the price of a barrel of oil has since declined to about $111. Slowly but surely, the price at the pump has been declining, dipping below $4.00 per gallon. The BP gas station that featured in my dream lowered its price for regular unleaded to $3.92 per gallon today. The prices in Western Suffolk are lower by about a nickel. Last night, on the way home from a friend's house in Deer Park, I filled up my tank with gas costing $3.86 a gallon.
So, why is the price of gasoline going down? While I am sure there are a lot of different explanations and theories, one factor that has to be contributing to the decline is the fact that Americans are driving less. According to an August 13, 2008 news release from the Department of Transportation:
Americans drove 4.7 percent less, or 12.2 billion miles fewer, in June 2008 than June 2007. The decline is most evident in rural travel, which has fallen by 4 percent – compared to the 1.2 percent decline in urban miles traveled – since the trend began last November.
The full report can be read here. So far, the number of miles driven for each of the first six months of this year shows a decline from the same month in 2007. It breaks down as follows:
January -1.6%
February -0.5%
March -4.3%
April -1.6%
May -3.9%
June -4.7%
One of the things this demonstrates is that prices are outside of the ability of our elected officials to control. I don't know how much Representative Israel expected the price of oil to drop by tapping the SPR, but the market price's downward trend surely renders his proposal unnecessary. And it also begs the question, how do our elected officials "know" what the price of gasoline should be? Should we slowly deplete the SPR to maintain a price of $2.00 per gallon? And if so, how are they going to encourage motor vehicle owners to reduce their driving and use alternative modes of transportation?
While I don't have any hard statistics, I have seen anecdotal evidence that more people are riding their bicycles, as I have been doing, when carrying out local errands. Even in my own neighborhood, I notice more people with Shoprite or CVS plastic bags hanging from their handle bars (to which I wince a bit, as I wear a knapsack on my back, which is much safer), and I see some Long Island Rail Road commuters making use of the bicycle lockers at the Hicksville Station. Unfortunately, I can't make use of a bicycle locker, because I have to pick my children up from day camp, and starting next month, from school.
The big question, make that two big questions, is, how low will gasoline prices fall and for how long? I think I can be pretty confident that we won't see the price I saw in my aforementioned dream. One downside of declining fuel prices is that if they get low enough, fuel conservation efforts will slacken and the demand for gasoline will increase, thereby setting the stage for the price to go up again.
Now, I make no claim to any special oracular powers when it comes to the price of gasoline. I couldn't tell you what the price of a barrel of Brent Light Sweet Crude will cost a month from now. I do expect that the price of gasoline will stop falling at some point and that it will resume its upward march and set a new record, whereupon it will decline somewhat, before rising again. From what I have read, it seems inevitable that we will eventually reach a point where production will not be able to keep pace with demand, unless we can find a significant alternative fuel sources that will steer us away from our dependence on petroleum. But that is a topic for another post.
In the meantime, I still plan to continue doing what I have been doing, using my bicycle or walking for local errands, and planning my driving routes to minimize fuel consumption.
In the dream, I turned to my wife and asked her, "What the hell happened to cause the price of gasoline to go down so much? I don't understand how this is possible!"
That's about all I remember from the dream.
Anyway, this past July 11, I got an e-mail from my congressional representative Steve Israel with the catchy title "Dropping Gasoline Prices in Two Weeks or Less." In his e-mail, Representative Israel announces:
Reducing gas prices in two weeks? It’s entirely possible. And no, it doesn’t depend on a massive production increase from Saudi Arabia, or even additional drilling—which wouldn’t give us a price reduction for five to ten years.
All we need to do is draw down a limited portion of the oil in our country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and prices will drop dramatically. Most importantly, the effect will be immediate- unlike drilling on the continental shelf or in Alaska, which will take nearly a decade to have a significant impact.
The SPR currently holds over 700 million barrels of oil- it’s highest capacity in history! Why are we hording such a massive reserve of oil when gas prices continue to rise at an intolerable rate? According to the Department of Energy, oil from SPR deployment would enter the market in less than 2 weeks. Why wait 10 years when we can have results now?
While I appreciate Representative Israel's concern about the price of gasoline, the fact is, since he sent out the above-cited e-mail, we have had results without tapping the SPR. I don't recall the exact peak price in my neighborhood, but I believe it was over $4.30 per gallon for regular unleaded. After hitting a record of $147 per barrel, the price of a barrel of oil has since declined to about $111. Slowly but surely, the price at the pump has been declining, dipping below $4.00 per gallon. The BP gas station that featured in my dream lowered its price for regular unleaded to $3.92 per gallon today. The prices in Western Suffolk are lower by about a nickel. Last night, on the way home from a friend's house in Deer Park, I filled up my tank with gas costing $3.86 a gallon.
So, why is the price of gasoline going down? While I am sure there are a lot of different explanations and theories, one factor that has to be contributing to the decline is the fact that Americans are driving less. According to an August 13, 2008 news release from the Department of Transportation:
Americans drove 4.7 percent less, or 12.2 billion miles fewer, in June 2008 than June 2007. The decline is most evident in rural travel, which has fallen by 4 percent – compared to the 1.2 percent decline in urban miles traveled – since the trend began last November.
The full report can be read here. So far, the number of miles driven for each of the first six months of this year shows a decline from the same month in 2007. It breaks down as follows:
January -1.6%
February -0.5%
March -4.3%
April -1.6%
May -3.9%
June -4.7%
One of the things this demonstrates is that prices are outside of the ability of our elected officials to control. I don't know how much Representative Israel expected the price of oil to drop by tapping the SPR, but the market price's downward trend surely renders his proposal unnecessary. And it also begs the question, how do our elected officials "know" what the price of gasoline should be? Should we slowly deplete the SPR to maintain a price of $2.00 per gallon? And if so, how are they going to encourage motor vehicle owners to reduce their driving and use alternative modes of transportation?
While I don't have any hard statistics, I have seen anecdotal evidence that more people are riding their bicycles, as I have been doing, when carrying out local errands. Even in my own neighborhood, I notice more people with Shoprite or CVS plastic bags hanging from their handle bars (to which I wince a bit, as I wear a knapsack on my back, which is much safer), and I see some Long Island Rail Road commuters making use of the bicycle lockers at the Hicksville Station. Unfortunately, I can't make use of a bicycle locker, because I have to pick my children up from day camp, and starting next month, from school.
The big question, make that two big questions, is, how low will gasoline prices fall and for how long? I think I can be pretty confident that we won't see the price I saw in my aforementioned dream. One downside of declining fuel prices is that if they get low enough, fuel conservation efforts will slacken and the demand for gasoline will increase, thereby setting the stage for the price to go up again.
Now, I make no claim to any special oracular powers when it comes to the price of gasoline. I couldn't tell you what the price of a barrel of Brent Light Sweet Crude will cost a month from now. I do expect that the price of gasoline will stop falling at some point and that it will resume its upward march and set a new record, whereupon it will decline somewhat, before rising again. From what I have read, it seems inevitable that we will eventually reach a point where production will not be able to keep pace with demand, unless we can find a significant alternative fuel sources that will steer us away from our dependence on petroleum. But that is a topic for another post.
In the meantime, I still plan to continue doing what I have been doing, using my bicycle or walking for local errands, and planning my driving routes to minimize fuel consumption.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Onward Gasoline Prices
Remember the good old days about 4 weeks ago when I filled up the tank of my car with gasoline that cost $3.60 per gallon?
Well, as I anticipated then, it didn't take long for the price of gasoline here on Long Island to pierce the $4.00 per gallon mark.
Long Island's Cable News 12 and newspaper Newsday have articles on the reaction of Long Islanders to the price rise here and here. Newsday's James Klurfeld has a column here, where he concludes glumly "I've begun to wonder if the suburban lifestyle, the Long Island lifestyle, will still be viable a generation from now."
As I wrote in my initial post linked to above, as well as this more recent one, some of the ways I have tried to respond constructively to the increase in the cost of gasoline include reducing my driving and to using my bicycle when possible for local errands.
I don't doubt that other people are responding in a similar fashion. It got me to thinking that among the many consequences of the rise in gasoline prices it seems certain that as more suburbanites switch to bike riding that we will begin to see an increase in (1) bicycle riders who are killed or injured riding on main roads, and (2) bicycle thefts. It also would not surprise me if owners of gas guzzling vehicles like Hummers® become victims of acts of vandalism by angry people looking to vent their misplaced rage against convenient scapegoats.
One thing for sure, there will be no quick fix to this situation. We have had cheap gas for so long that we began to think of it as an entitlement. Several years ago, when my wife used to work on weekends, I would sometimes pass the time on nice, sunny days by putting my kids in their booster seats and going for scenic drives. Those days, like the days of cheap oil, are over.
Well, as I anticipated then, it didn't take long for the price of gasoline here on Long Island to pierce the $4.00 per gallon mark.
Long Island's Cable News 12 and newspaper Newsday have articles on the reaction of Long Islanders to the price rise here and here. Newsday's James Klurfeld has a column here, where he concludes glumly "I've begun to wonder if the suburban lifestyle, the Long Island lifestyle, will still be viable a generation from now."
As I wrote in my initial post linked to above, as well as this more recent one, some of the ways I have tried to respond constructively to the increase in the cost of gasoline include reducing my driving and to using my bicycle when possible for local errands.
I don't doubt that other people are responding in a similar fashion. It got me to thinking that among the many consequences of the rise in gasoline prices it seems certain that as more suburbanites switch to bike riding that we will begin to see an increase in (1) bicycle riders who are killed or injured riding on main roads, and (2) bicycle thefts. It also would not surprise me if owners of gas guzzling vehicles like Hummers® become victims of acts of vandalism by angry people looking to vent their misplaced rage against convenient scapegoats.
One thing for sure, there will be no quick fix to this situation. We have had cheap gas for so long that we began to think of it as an entitlement. Several years ago, when my wife used to work on weekends, I would sometimes pass the time on nice, sunny days by putting my kids in their booster seats and going for scenic drives. Those days, like the days of cheap oil, are over.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
How About Those Gasoline Prices?
Yesterday it cost me a whopping $40 to fill up the tank of my 2003 Buick Century. But as much as I griped about the $3.60 per gallon price I paid, I found some solace today when I noticed that the price per gallon for regular unleaded gasoline at the same Amoco station was now up to $3.65 per gallon. Super unleaded gasoline here on Long Island is on the cusp of $4.00 per gallon, which should happen any day now, and regular unleaded will likely cross that line soon afterwards. In a News 12 report on gasoline prices on Long Island, gas station owners fret that they do not have enough fours to put up on their price signs.
While gasoline prices have increased noticeably over the last several years, and have long since exceeded the $2.00 per gallon plateau, for the most part I was not affected by it. My wife and I pretty much drive local, to the train station, the supermarket, the mall, and so forth. But now the price per gallon has risen to a point that even if one fills their tank up just twice per month, it still takes a chunk out of the family budget. And if my wallet is taking a hit now, I can only imagine how drivers with SUVs and minivans are suffering.
Because those of us who live in suburban areas depend on our cars, we don't really have much choice but to put up with it. As this blurb from the Department of Energy web site acknowledges, our options are rather limited:
Consumers have very little power as individuals but, if enough consumers give the same “market signal,” they can impact prices. First, when consumers buy gasoline at service stations in their areas with the lowest price, they take market share away from higher-priced stations; these stations may then eventually reduce their prices to be more competitive. The second way consumers impact the market is by reducing gasoline consumption. If enough people reduce driving or switch to more energy-efficient vehicles, gasoline demand would decline and prices would be dampened.
I am doing what I can to reduce my own gasoline consumption. I am fortunate enough in that my local supermarket is within walking distance, and I have a hand cart that can hold a decent amount of groceries in it. This morning, rather than drive the several miles to my daughter's doctor's office to pick up a copy of her vaccination record for her kindergarten enrollment, I rode my bicycle there. Tomorrow morning, I plan to ride my bicycle the several miles into Hicksville to return some videos to BlockBuster.
But in spite of my best efforts, I don't think that I can stretch a full tank of gas for much more than two weeks. And no matter how conscientious I try to be, circumstances can arise to thwart my intentions. For example, a couple of nights ago my mom called complaining that she was itching violently, probably as a result of an allergic reaction, and asked me to pick up some Benadryl for her. It was after nine o'clock on a school night, and my wife was at work, so I had to drive my children to my mom's place before driving to Walgreens in Hicksville to pick up the Benadryl. And I realize that as idealistic as I try to be about reducing my fuel consumption to such a degree, it will have absolutely no impact whatsoever. It might make a minor difference if everybody could do the same thing. But I recognize that for a lot of people in this country, it is not easy to do. People who live in rural areas can't be expected to ride bicycles five or ten miles each way when they run errands into town. Neither can persons with physical disabilities that make it impossible to exert themselves in such ways.
So, the sad fact of the matter is that there is not a hell of a lot we can do about the rise in the price of gasoline. And then there is the sober realization that it will get much worse. From the web site Life After the Oil Crash comes these dire prognostications:
Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.
In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin.
The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.
In a similar sense, an oil based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10 to 15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.
I am a generally optimistic person, but we could be in for some rough times ahead folks.
While gasoline prices have increased noticeably over the last several years, and have long since exceeded the $2.00 per gallon plateau, for the most part I was not affected by it. My wife and I pretty much drive local, to the train station, the supermarket, the mall, and so forth. But now the price per gallon has risen to a point that even if one fills their tank up just twice per month, it still takes a chunk out of the family budget. And if my wallet is taking a hit now, I can only imagine how drivers with SUVs and minivans are suffering.
Because those of us who live in suburban areas depend on our cars, we don't really have much choice but to put up with it. As this blurb from the Department of Energy web site acknowledges, our options are rather limited:
Consumers have very little power as individuals but, if enough consumers give the same “market signal,” they can impact prices. First, when consumers buy gasoline at service stations in their areas with the lowest price, they take market share away from higher-priced stations; these stations may then eventually reduce their prices to be more competitive. The second way consumers impact the market is by reducing gasoline consumption. If enough people reduce driving or switch to more energy-efficient vehicles, gasoline demand would decline and prices would be dampened.
I am doing what I can to reduce my own gasoline consumption. I am fortunate enough in that my local supermarket is within walking distance, and I have a hand cart that can hold a decent amount of groceries in it. This morning, rather than drive the several miles to my daughter's doctor's office to pick up a copy of her vaccination record for her kindergarten enrollment, I rode my bicycle there. Tomorrow morning, I plan to ride my bicycle the several miles into Hicksville to return some videos to BlockBuster.
But in spite of my best efforts, I don't think that I can stretch a full tank of gas for much more than two weeks. And no matter how conscientious I try to be, circumstances can arise to thwart my intentions. For example, a couple of nights ago my mom called complaining that she was itching violently, probably as a result of an allergic reaction, and asked me to pick up some Benadryl for her. It was after nine o'clock on a school night, and my wife was at work, so I had to drive my children to my mom's place before driving to Walgreens in Hicksville to pick up the Benadryl. And I realize that as idealistic as I try to be about reducing my fuel consumption to such a degree, it will have absolutely no impact whatsoever. It might make a minor difference if everybody could do the same thing. But I recognize that for a lot of people in this country, it is not easy to do. People who live in rural areas can't be expected to ride bicycles five or ten miles each way when they run errands into town. Neither can persons with physical disabilities that make it impossible to exert themselves in such ways.
So, the sad fact of the matter is that there is not a hell of a lot we can do about the rise in the price of gasoline. And then there is the sober realization that it will get much worse. From the web site Life After the Oil Crash comes these dire prognostications:
Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.
In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin.
The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.
In a similar sense, an oil based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10 to 15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.
I am a generally optimistic person, but we could be in for some rough times ahead folks.
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