Monday, May 26, 2008

The Crystal Ball of James Dale Davidson

Today I was rummaging through some boxes around the house and came across a booklet I had received in the mail years ago ominously titled "The Plague of the Black Debt: How to Survive the Coming Depression" by a James Dale Davidson. The booklet describes Davidson as "a principal in Strategic Advisors Corporation, an asset management group for wealthy individuals" and touts his ability to predict events.

Davidson co-authored several books with a Lord William Rees-Mogg (he being a member of the British House of Lords), including The Sovereign Individual. I tried to find out more information about Davidson on the Internet. There does not seem to be much information about him. Apparently he founded the National Taxpayers Union.

Anyway, "The Plague of the Black Debt" has a copyright date of 1993, so I received it either that year or in 1994 at the latest. In the booklet, Davidson makes a number of ominous predictions, some that in hindsight were laughably wrong. In fact, I believe I held on to the booklet just so I could check the accuracy of its predictions years later.

My favorite is on page 58, where Davidson confidently claims that "Bill Clinton is going to be a one-term president. He is going to get clobbered in the '96 election, assuming his own party even renominates him. I am as sure of this as I am that the sun will rise tomorrow." (Emphasis mine). Granted, Clinton did suffer a major setback in the '94 congressional election, with the Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress. But Clinton handily defeated a lackluster Bob Dole in the 1996 election.

Davidson continues, "Bill Clinton's failure will take place against a background of deep depression, urban riots, and people losing their homes." None of these things happened on Clinton's watch, though many people are losing their homes under the current administration.

Another amusing little nugget, "[S]ome events I expect in the next few months: Boris Yeltsin will lose his job. Russia will come under the control of a nationalist, militarist regime - in effect, a fascist regime." In actual fact, Boris Yeltsin would be re-elected to a second term in 1996 and he would later voluntarily step down at the end of 1999.

Davidson also makes dire prognostications about how the national debt would increase by a trillion dollars during Clinton's "one-term" presidency. But as we all know, budget deficits turned into budget surpluses during Clinton's second term, and there were even perfunctory efforts to pay down the national debt.

There are a number of other "predictions" that Davidson makes about what Clinton would do that never happened in either of his two terms as president. And of course, all of these alarmist claims were pitched to gullible investors to get them to subscribe to Davidson's monthly STRATEGIC INVESTMENT newsletter.

Now to be fair, not all of Davidson's predictions or analyses in the booklet were wrong. One specter he raises in the booklet as happening "in just a few years from now" is of "millions of homeowners 'upside down' - with the mortgage bigger than the market value of the home. A lot of them will hand the key to the lender and walk away. There will be a lot of empty houses with 'For Sale' signs." And in fact, in recent months, this has indeed been happening. There are even companies now set up to help homeowners to indeed walk away from their houses.

But Davidson made so many specific predictions that were incredibly wrong that it makes me wonder if any investors got hosed in the Nineties following his advice. It just goes to show that a healthy skepticism applies to more than just the claims of religion and the supernatural.

65 comments:

gordo said...

I wouldn't worry too much about the investors. Betting on a bear market and losing is a whole lot less painful than betting on a bull market and losing.

That's because investors usually react to a perceived bear market by hedging and by pulling their money out of higher risk investments. During good times, they don't make as much money as the bulls do, but they do OK.

But there are a few who are silly enough to sell short. Unless you really know what you're doing, that's a great way to lose a ton of money in a hurry.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to hear your comments on JDD now. I read that same little booklet years ago, and dug it up last week because of what is going on, and it seems very close to today. Russia too, (not just the economy). I'm not happy about it, but seems he and Moggs were right.

Anonymous said...

I have to agree with anonymous. Although a bit later than he predicted a good portion of the points he makes in that booklet are happening right now. Greenspan has already been accused of creating an economy that fosters a depression by many financial analysts.

I have to correct you on one point. Clinton did NOT decrease the federal debt. He decreased the federal deficit or in other words the amount they bounced the check. Two very different terms.

Until we pay down our debt, decrease our foreign trade deficit and get back to some type of backed currency we're still on track to fulfill James' predictions.

So far as I can tell the public doesn't want to elect anyone that wants to do any of the above.

Has either candidate even mentioned the federal debt?

Anonymous said...

Clinton veto'ed the balanced budget amendment which would have caused congress to actually have to not spend any more than they had collected in taxes, novel idea.

Anonymous said...

I read this booklet back in 2001 and just dug it up again and re skimmed it. I did find some ideas to be predicted but not so much the timeline. Mostly it does bring to question as to what the hell is exactly going on? I say all the same rules apply today as in the past both the government and people need to live in there means, save, own your home outright, and not be so greedy and wanting. Simple.

Anonymous said...

Have just pulled out an old copy of "Plague of the Black Debt" and it seems to me that Davidson and Rees-Mogg got it a lot more right than wrong - and it's still unfolding. I am pretty sure the "cannon fodder", i.e. the ordinary man-in-the-street, all over the world , is going to suffer long and hard whilst those in the know, call them the "Illuminati" if you will, make shitloads of money - on the way down and then on the way up again.

Anonymous said...

I too picked up a copy of "The Plague of the Black Debt". But the year was 2004 and it was already a dated book at that time. I was intrigued by the accuracy of some of the predictions for the 90's, particularly the one about ski resort real estate going up- I had watched this happen in my home ski town. I had a strong, erie feeling so I also held onto the book to see if the bubble was going to bust and the rest of his predictions would also come true.

I pulled out that book last week and it seems he and Rees-Mogg weren't so far off by their predictions of events, but timing. Perhaps its because the "depression cycle" he speaks of is between 50 and 70 years so he felt it would be in the middle at sixty years (or mid to late 90's).

Anonymous said...

I just found this book among my deceased mother's books and read it this evening. Page 109 gave me the shivers:
At the beginning of the 20's real estate lenders demanded 40% down, by the end of the 20"s, hugh loans were made, nothing down, on a hole in the ground. Second and third mortgages, backed by nothing, were sold to individual investors for twice the interest you could earn on a T-Bill. People were told these were perfectly safe, that there had never been a default.

Sound familiar?

Tommy said...

Wow, this thread sure picked up some steam lately.

Anonymous said...

Interesting...I was rumaging the back bed room and found this book that I received with a subscription to some conservative organization..I concur that the last few months show that his book to be largely true..then again..we all know that our finiancial system is a house of cards.. that government spending is out of control and has been for decades.. The last straw is credit card debt...any one notice that those boys have applied for or have been granted bank status?? :-)
Dead on book...just missed the timing... Herb

Dave said...

Crystal ball ... yes! Well, maybe...
Strange, so very strange. I'm searching the web on J.D.D. because I just read this same book. I went on vacation and scanned my bookshelf for some quick to read books on investing. Guess I got it like anyone else - in the mail long ago. True, some of the predictions are incorrect - but I'd say, for a book that was written in '93-'94, this is creepy it's so close to today's reality. It's also creepy that you folks have recently commented on this 15 year old political/ financial/ promotional prophecy. I thought I was alone on this coincidence. His predicted timing basically did happen at the internet tech bubble burst around 2000. Now 15 years later, his ultimate financial prediction is basically upon us - who can say for sure? Maybe this will be a depression. So here I am searching to see if JDD and the SI newsletter was or is too good to be true. I similarly found some accusations on the web that JDD is a penny stock fraudster - but it's written by media and who knows if it's actually true or not. Anyway, it looks like strategic investment as a newsletter still exists www.strategicinvestment.com but of course all the names have changed - no more JDD. So was it a mail order scam? Was it legit but called a scam? Is the new Agora and SI newsletter a valuable resource? I'm looking for what JDD promised SI would be - the best investment advice available. Isn't everyone? baldwad at gmail

chris lz said...

It may or may not be fair to credit JDD with predictions that took over a decade to happen. Wait long enough, and some serious crisis will eventually happen. He himself admitted in one of his last contributions to Strategic Investment that his prediction of another great depression for the 1990s was wrong. He has since strangely disappeared from public view, allegedly due to a stroke, or some other circulatory illness.

Anonymous said...

I also found their predictions to be pretty accurate, although the timing is way off in some cases, and as the original post say, they missed some entirely. I am reading their book The Sovereign Individual right now, and it is stunning how on the money some of these predictions were - collapse of governments around the world, central banks lose the power to inflate and control the money supply, widespread loss in confidence in political leaders. It seems that each new idea I read corresponds with a current headline to some degree. For another useful, predictive book, take a look at Harry Dent's new book about the coming Great Depression. It just came out this month. Also, I found recent posts by Rees-Mogg on www.newsmax.com, but nothing from Davidson.

Roger said...

I too was cleaning the basement last night and came across Plague of the Black Debt. I read this just for fun to see how close it would come to todays events. Scary Close!Islamic terrorist, housing and banking crisis, high unemployment,third world countries with nukes and our goverment pumping money into a failed system. pg113 "get out of debt&stocks". My thoughts exactly.

Anonymous said...

Personally, I'm a fan. He's not in the public eye at this time intentionally. After all, he was prepared.

Anonymous said...

A freind mentioned that she had read JDD's book "The Great Reckoning" some years back and was now seeing the predicitons come to pass. I am reading it now and, like the book you are referring to, there are many predictions discussed that he predicted would occur in the '90's but are just now coming about. On such a long cycle, it would not be unusual to be off a few years. I'm sure that our Fed and Treasury have been pulling every rabbit out of the hat trying to keep things propped up as long as possible. Personally, I think the advent of the internet caused a huge amount of dusty money to be put to productive use and forestalled the downturn (lucky for Bill that his VP invented it).

I feel like we are in a very unfamiliar, Salvadore Dali financial/political landscape and I am searching for where we are possibly going in the future. Since JDD seems more right than wrong, a major accomplishment, I would tend to at least listen to what he has to say. As a friend of mine used to say, "Listen to everyone, but think for yourself."

Bryan DeLaney said...

Where is JDD today? I don't know, but back in 1992 I read "The Great Reckoning" by JDD and Lord Rees-Moog. I remembr the book predicting almost excatly what we are seeing today, just delayed 15 years. The book even predicted what would cause its predictions to be delayed by 10 to 20 years. That is, some new un-forseen invention that would delay the depression. The invention turned out to be the Internet. I am going to find a copy of that book and re-read it. Besdies the predictions, the book is very interesting reading.
Best Regards,
bryan@delaneymail.com

John said...

One thing JDD addressed 15 years ago was the decline in large militaries and weapons systems and the rise in terrorism and home-made bombs and weapons that would be accessible by any fruitcake who held a grudge. He advised investing in anti-terrorist technologies long before anyone had heard of Al Quaeda.

Tommy said...

He advised investing in anti-terrorist technologies long before anyone had heard of Al Quaeda.

Maybe it was JDD who was really behind the attack on the WTC! LOL!

Anonymous said...

i was at a yard sale this past summer and got this book for a dime, and t was lost in the closet. found it today and read it. all makes sense...people need to look into something called "AUSTRIAN ECONMICS & THE SCHOOL OF VON MISES" ron paul is an advocate, but people always thought he was crazy. Also look on youtube for a video title "PETER SCHIFF PREDICTS ECONOMIC COLLAPSE 8/28/06" he was labled crazy also. please people, at least check out and decide for yourself!

Claude Throshien said...

So -- some of the predictions have come to pass and more may as well. The only question that counts -- how do we profit from it???

God is in control said...

I just came across this book last week and wondered how I aquired it. Now I know it was junk mail. I read it for the first time because of the "times". I wondered about all the coincidences I found on this blog but then I realized there was a mass mailing here and there are millions of pack rats like us who never throw a book out and who are curious enough to google the writer's name. It was interesting to read. Depression or no I agree the partie's over and we all need to get out of debt and live more simply. Thank God the best things in life ARE free!

bailingout said...

bmnbbb

Anonymous said...

I think you all should rummage some more and find the booklet entitled THE DISAPPEARANcE OF INTEGRITY and the Financial Destruction of America's Middle class. Published by JDD in 1996. This book couldn't be more on the "money" today!

jrad said...

JDD writes a letter called Abundance; to me {at least), it sounds pretty insightful. I also read The Plague of... and I thought he provided some decent points to consider. Jrad

jrad said...

JDD writes a blog called Abundance; I am impressed with the tone of the letter, to me he sounds pretty insightful.

Steve said...

If you're a subscriber to the free newsletter from The Sovereign Society, then you'll have received a little note from JDD, with links to a website at which he offers a special deal (ahem) on his Crisis Newsletter service. He describes himself as a crisis investor, and is touting a currency transaction he'll help you with through the newsletter service -- a transaction that could (he says) result in an extraordinary return on investment with minimal risk. He quotes from his earlier works, but does not mention the Agora debacle (perhaps because he was not charged). He does comment on his great record as a prognosticator. I like his basic idea in this case; I'm just not sure it's worth $495 for a subscription to his service, which (he claims) is how he makes his money -- solely by selling advice. He wants us to assume that he's making tons of money selling the service because his advice works. I'd love to talk to actual subscribers, but somehow I don't think I'd be given the opportunity to do so.

Anonymous said...

Very strange. Late last summer I came across this book and put it up. With all the dire financial news lately, I picked it up again. It seems spot on, if not a little late. Because it was published in 1993, I'd buy that the internet pushed the timing back. Maybe that is what Gore was referring to when he claimed he "invented" it. Perhaps he meant he was responsible for unleashing it. Something to ponder.

Anonymous said...

Hey!
At least he predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall!... like everybody else.

Tommykey said...

Anonymous @ March 15, Al Gore never claimed to have invented the Internet. He was instrumental in getting the legislation passed in Congress that made the Internet available for public use.

Anonymous said...

It's interesting that Davidson has the intellectual skills to see things coming. Some of his predictions were made with information from Washington insiders, such as terrorism being the next world threat. This latter issue was known well in advance, because it was being planned by those at the top levels of power. That's merely insider scuttlebutt.

But oddly enough, although JDD, and friends, could see things coming, the news letters were always pushing some B.S. stocks, and at times they were even the market makers of those stocks. Yes, this is scam material. Little wonder Davidson ended up being charged with stock fraud.

Lord Rees-Mogg's rep is still in tact. He's writing and Lording still, as are other members of the news-letters-machine, of which Strategic Investments was one product.

I even have a memory of seeing JDD on Firing Line, with Bill Buckley, as one of the members of the conservatives panel in a debate. This happened a couple of times, if memory serves.

I read all of their books. Damn good reading. I used to have a lot of respect for Davidson, but in the end, he deserved to be charged, IMHO.

Anonymous said...

Re: Davidson charged

I posted, apparently in error, that JDD was charged with stock fraud. I just found a page stating that this was not the case. I thought I'd make this correction. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Dale_Davidson

Anonymous said...

Exercise in Futility, today marks the one year anniversary of your original post. Last night I found The Plague of Black Debt while sorting through stuff I inherited from my late parents. I did a cursory read-through.
When JDD published this we were in a period of political uncertianty about Bill. In November of 2007, we started another, more convoluted period of political uncertianty (which we are still in until Barack's agenda shakes out). Uncertianty is what spooks the market more than anything else. It looks like some fundamental changes in our economic structure will come about. At best, I think the market will go sideways (be generally flat) for the next decade.
What's your take a year later?

Anonymous said...

James Dale Davidson apparently lost all his money -- there have been SEC investigations and a lot of his one-time investors have realized that he's simply crazy as a loon. Whatever - if he predicted the current situation in the economy, he sure didn't capitalize on it.

Tim Nelson said...

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Anonymous said...

In a bipartisan electoral system, though complementary, "Clinton won", and "Dole lost" are not a paired 'cause and effect pair'. JSD may have been correct.

Anonymous said...

I posted my comment below regarding James Dale Davidson in response to his latest
article-promotion of himself and his scammy wingnut and penny stock and pseudo-news website named newsmax.com that cheerled the war on Afhanistan and Iraq while promoting his stock cyberfraud ops and lies.The article promtion of it that no doubt originated from James Dale Davidson's fraudulent newsmax.con itself is,'Davidson: Obama White House Is Lying to You (There is NO Recovery)'.
Here is my response:


Anyone familiar with James Dale Davidson,(I corresponded with him personally in 2004 re his lie that his Endovasc and Genemax biotech penny stock pump and dump shares were 'naked shorted',a term he virtually made up to distract from his illegal stock promotions).I know Obama is covering up for the Israeli stock fraudsters and money launderers of ICTS International who ‘guarded’ Logan Boston Airport on 9/11 as well as DeGualle Paris when Richard Reid ‘the shoe bomber’ boarded after 911 and more recently at Amsterdam’s airport on Christmas and Barack Osama is covering that up. But then James Dale Davidson, founder of National Taxpayers Union, as well as Agora Inc penny stock holding (and dumping)‘company’, lies all the time to pump and dump worthless shares (so someone(s) in the U.S.government and Mary Schapiro's SEC is looking out for him).
Davidson pumped and dumped Genemax biotech pump and dump out of the same Blaine,Washington office that he had his NAANSS or National Association Against Naked Short Selling.He and Genemax lied about a cancer vaccine in 2002 and made up the term ‘naked short selling’ (and NAANSS or National Association Against Naked Short Selling)since used by stock fraudsters and even ex SEC Chair Chris Cox to claim Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were ‘naked shorted’.
And yet if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares had been 'naked shorted',(a strange term to mean counterfeited),then the result would have been that some shares would not have received dividends through DTCC!So his multi billion dollar false claim is a provable lie - but the SEC has promoted James Dale Davidson's lie as the truth and refuses to provide any proof! James Dale Davidson touted and promoted Bill Clinton like another of his worthless penny stocks before then startng the rumor that Clinton killed Vince Foster. More recently Davidson has pumped and dumped Pluristem a penny stock ‘biotech’ fraud claiming to use stem cells from placentas)with Israeli and Leumi Bank,(that won’t pay holocaust survivers money owed),connections that uses American incorporation(Delaware) for the fraud because the Israeli gov would put them in jail if they defrauded Israelis like they do Americans and launder the money offshore.So Davidson as well as ex Carlyle CEO Frank Carlucci has used Pluristem to steal money from his fellow Americans and launder it offshore which has been his life long means of income and to fund his political dirty tricks money including his newsmax.con site that may have been naed for his Genemax fraud or vice versa. When you subsidize James Dale Davidson by buying his worthless stock shares you are subidising fraud.The corruption of Barack Obama does not prove any integrity in James Dale Davidson.
- Tony Ryals

David said...

I was a subscriber to Strategic Investment back in the mid 90's.

As has been mentioned in other replies JDD's predictions were right on more often than not, but his timing tended to be way too early. He didn't seem to realize that things like politics and the economy are huge animals and they change directions very slowly.

Someone else mentioned that he was an advocate for Bill Clinton. I think they went to school together. But, one of his writers, Jack Wheeler, tried to warn him how dirty Clinton was. Remember Whitewater and Rose law firm? He refused to believe Wheeler at first and I think he fired him over it. But, he later did a reversal as Clinton events unfolded.

I was trading in the futures market at the time which is very short term investing. I needed timely news. Since his scenarios were strictly long term -- longer than even he realized -- I had to drop him.

But, I did read some of his books. Recent events made me recall some of his predictions which seem to be unfolding right now so I googled his name to see what had to say about it all.

Apparently he retired from investing for about ten years and married a former Miss Brazil.

I found some other things about him including his latest attempt to revive Strategic Investments. It's on a blog page and there hasn't been any activity since June 2010. Looks like he dropped out again.

Anonymous said...

Funny this thread is still going even though the owner of this blog hasn't been around since '08.

Anonymous said...

Davidson in his book, The Decline & Fall of the Welfare State, refers to a five hundred year cycle and a sixty year cycle. These long wave cycles are useful in plotting the accuracy of current trends. Another book coauthored with Rees Moog, Blood in the Streets, was published in 1978. The trends referred to in this book have by and large come to pass. Western countries economies have been fire walled for five hundred years, now people living in the developing world have breached the wall. Take a look at the past for clues about our economic circumstances today. Europeans experienced similar collapse in an earlier period of cyclic change.

The world changed drastically five hundred years ago. Gutenberg invented movable type, America was 'discovered', Galileo demonstrated that the earth rotated around the sun. The enlightenment was profound in it's effect. This began a change in world view, confined in its promulgating force primarily to people living in western Europe. The immediate effect was to change and transform the world view of a relatively small number of Earth's population. The wealth of this small number of people grew enormously in in a short time.

However toward the end of the nineteenth century the growth of the American economy began to suck wealth out of Europe. And to suck people out of a Europe too, where the effect of wealth on these people was an educated and healthy population. The result in Europe of this spreading of enlightenment knowledges, values, attitudes, liberal views, etc. to another continent was a collapse in the hegemony of European control of the wealth producing capacities that had bestowed a monopoly on their citizens. The result there was an absolute fall in the purchasing power of the pound. Intercontinental trade patterns were altered irrevocably. Average incomes declined. Debt increased. Money sought higher returns in a booming America.

The cause of the First War was rooted in this devastating pound devaluation. Germany misread the macroeconomic tealeaves. German leaders wanted to make up for not having the benefits that Britain's Empire had bestowed on them. However Britain's empire had by then become a debilitating cost; no longer the asset it was. German expansionism was a reaction to the decline in Britain's power. The rise of America was not seen as the cause of Britain's decline. It wasn't even on the radar screen. It took until the second part of this thirty years war to bring evidence of the spread of enlightenment values to another continent. Following the war Europe was deeply indebted to America.
This collapse ended a five hundred cycle. Davidson makes clear how people alive during the enlightenment were unaware of the forces that surrounded them. We are witnessing the spread of enlightenment values and forces to the rest of the world. The effect is growth in the rest of the world, disruptive to the old world of Europe and America, with economic effects similar to those of one hundred and twenty years ago, two cycles ago in the sixty year periodicity.

We cannot change the past. But we must avoid reacting to conditions in the same way as done in the past.
We are in the midst of a similarly disruptive increase in costs, a similar decline in real income, a similar increase in debt, and a similarly disruptive consequence of money seeking higher returns elsewhere. The past indeed bestows on us a crystal ball. It's not woo woo stuff at all. Just history in the making.
The rise of the internet made possible by the invention of the silicon chip is merely the continuance of the scientific revolution began during the enlightenment five hundred years ago. Some it will bless, others, not so much. We cannot reverse history. But by appraising ourselves of it we can perhaps as individuals better choose our paths through the changes to come.

Anonymous said...

Davidson in his book, The Decline & Fall of the Welfare State, refers to a five hundred year cycle and a sixty year cycle. These long wave cycles are useful in plotting the accuracy of current trends. Another book coauthored with Rees Moog, Blood in the Streets, was published in 1978. The trends referred to in this book have by and large come to pass. Western countries economies have been fire walled for five hundred years, now people living in the developing world have breached the wall. Take a look at the past for clues about our economic circumstances today. Europeans experienced similar collapse in an earlier period of cyclic change.

The world changed drastically five hundred years ago. Gutenberg invented movable type, America was 'discovered', Galileo demonstrated that the earth rotated around the sun. The enlightenment was profound in it's effect. This began a change in world view, confined in its promulgating force primarily to people living in western Europe. The immediate effect was to change and transform the world view of a relatively small number of Earth's population. The wealth of this small number of people grew enormously in in a short time.

However toward the end of the nineteenth century the growth of the American economy began to suck wealth out of Europe. And to suck people out of a Europe too, where the effect of wealth on these people was an educated and healthy population. The result in Europe of this spreading of enlightenment knowledges, values, attitudes, liberal views, etc. to another continent was a collapse in the hegemony of European control of the wealth producing capacities that had bestowed a monopoly on their citizens. The result there was an absolute fall in the purchasing power of the pound. Intercontinental trade patterns were altered irrevocably. Average incomes declined. Debt increased. Money sought higher returns in a booming America.

The cause of the First War was rooted in this devastating pound devaluation. Germany misread the macroeconomic tealeaves. German leaders wanted to make up for not having the benefits that Britain's Empire had bestowed on them. However Britain's empire had by then become a debilitating cost; no longer the asset it was. German expansionism was a reaction to the decline in Britain's power. The rise of America was not seen as the cause of Britain's decline. It wasn't even on the radar screen. It took until the second part of this thirty years war to bring evidence of the spread of enlightenment values to another continent. Following the war Europe was deeply indebted to America.
This collapse ended a five hundred cycle. Davidson makes clear how people alive during the enlightenment were unaware of the forces that surrounded them. We are witnessing the spread of enlightenment values and forces to the rest of the world. The effect is growth in the rest of the world, disruptive to the old world of Europe and America, with economic effects similar to those of one hundred and twenty years ago, two cycles ago in the sixty year periodicity.

We are in the midst of a similarly disruptive increase in costs, a similar decline in real income, a similar increase in debt, and a similarly disruptive consequence of money seeking higher returns elsewhere. The past indeed bestows on us a crystal ball. It's not woo woo stuff at all. Just history in the making.
The rise of the internet made possible by the invention of the silicon chip is merely the continuance of the scientific revolution began during the enlightenment five hundred years ago. Some it will bless, others, not so much. We cannot reverse history. But by appraising ourselves of it we can perhaps as individuals better choose our paths through the changes to come.

Anonymous said...

Davidson in his book, The Decline & Fall of the Welfare State, refers to cycles. These cycles are useful in plotting the accuracy of current trends. Another book coauthored with Rees Moog, Blood in the Streets, was published in 1978. The trends referred to in this book have by and large come to pass. Western countries economies have been fire walled for five hundred years, now people living in the developing world have breached the wall. Take a look at the past for clues about our economic circumstances today. Europeans experienced similar collapse in an earlier period of cyclic change.

The world changed drastically five hundred years ago. Gutenberg invented movable type, America was 'discovered', Galileo demonstrated that the earth rotated around the sun. The enlightenment was profound in it's effect. This began a change in world view, confined in its promulgating force primarily to people living in western Europe. The immediate effect was to change and transform the world view of a relatively small number of Earth's population. The wealth of this small number of people grew enormously in in a short time.

However toward the end of the nineteenth century the growth of the American economy began to suck wealth out of Europe. And to suck people out of a Europe too, where the effect of wealth on these people was an educated and healthy population. The result in Europe of this spreading of enlightenment knowledges, values, attitudes, liberal views, etc. to another continent was a collapse in the hegemony of European control of the wealth producing capacities that had bestowed a monopoly on their citizens. The result there was an absolute fall in the purchasing power of the pound. Intercontinental trade patterns were altered irrevocably. Average incomes declined. Debt increased. Money sought higher returns in a booming America.

The cause of the First War was rooted in this devastating pound devaluation. Germany misread the macroeconomic tealeaves. German leaders wanted to make up for not having the benefits that Britain's Empire had bestowed on them. However Britain's empire had by then become a debilitating cost; no longer the asset it was. German expansionism was a reaction to the decline in Britain's power. The rise of America was not seen as the cause of Britain's decline. It wasn't even on the radar screen. It took until the second part of this thirty years war to bring evidence of the spread of enlightenment values to another continent. Following the war Europe was deeply indebted to America.
This collapse ended a five hundred cycle. Davidson makes clear how people alive during the enlightenment were unaware of the forces that surrounded them. We are witnessing the spread of enlightenment values and forces to the rest of the world. The effect is growth in the rest of the world, disruptive to the old world of Europe and America, with economic effects similar to those of one hundred and twenty years ago, two cycles ago in the sixty year periodicity.

We are in the midst of a similarly disruptive increase in costs, a similar decline in real income, a similar increase in debt, and a similarly disruptive consequence of money seeking higher returns elsewhere. The past indeed bestows on us a crystal ball. It's not woo woo stuff at all. Just history in the making.
The rise of the internet made possible by the invention of the silicon chip is merely the continuance of the scientific revolution began during the enlightenment five hundred years ago. Some it will bless, others, not so much. We cannot reverse history. But by appraising ourselves of it we can perhaps as individuals better choose our paths through the changes to come.

Anonymous said...

Another book coauthored with Rees Moog, Blood in the Streets, was published in 1978. The trends referred to in this book have by and large come to pass. Western countries economies have been fire walled for five hundred years, now people living in the developing world have breached the wall. Take a look at the past for clues about our economic circumstances today. Europeans experienced similar collapse in an earlier period of cyclic change.

The world changed drastically five hundred years ago. Gutenberg invented movable type, America was 'discovered', Galileo demonstrated that the earth rotated around the sun. The enlightenment was profound in it's effect. This began a change in world view, confined in its promulgating force primarily to people living in western Europe. The immediate effect was to change and transform the world view of a relatively small number of Earth's population. The wealth of this small number of people grew enormously in in a short time.

However toward the end of the nineteenth century the growth of the American economy began to suck wealth out of Europe. And to suck people out of a Europe too, where the effect of wealth on these people was an educated and healthy population. The result in Europe of this spreading of enlightenment knowledges, values, attitudes, liberal views, etc. to another continent was a collapse in the hegemony of European control of the wealth producing capacities that had bestowed a monopoly on their citizens. The result there was an absolute fall in the purchasing power of the pound. Intercontinental trade patterns were altered irrevocably. Average incomes declined. Debt increased. Money sought higher returns in a booming America.

The cause of the First War was rooted in this devastating pound devaluation. Germany misread the macroeconomic tealeaves. German leaders wanted to make up for not having the benefits that Britain's Empire had bestowed on them. However Britain's empire had by then become a debilitating cost; no longer the asset it was. German expansionism was a reaction to the decline in Britain's power. The rise of America was not seen as the cause of Britain's decline. It wasn't even on the radar screen. It took until the second part of this thirty years war to bring evidence of the spread of enlightenment values to another continent. Following the war Europe was deeply indebted to America.
This collapse ended a five hundred cycle. Davidson makes clear how people alive during the enlightenment were unaware of the forces that surrounded them. We are witnessing the spread of enlightenment values and forces to the rest of the world. The effect is growth in the rest of the world, disruptive to the old world of Europe and America, with economic effects similar to those of one hundred and twenty years ago, two cycles ago in the sixty year periodicity.

We are in the midst of a similarly disruptive increase in costs, a similar decline in real income, a similar increase in debt, and a similarly disruptive consequence of money seeking higher returns elsewhere. The past indeed bestows on us a crystal ball. It's not woo woo stuff at all. Just history in the making.
The rise of the internet made possible by the invention of the silicon chip is merely the continuance of the scientific revolution began during the enlightenment five hundred years ago. Some it will bless, others, not so much. We cannot reverse history. But by appraising ourselves of it we can perhaps as individuals better choose our paths through the changes to come.

Anonymous said...

this guy is a fraud. he is a loser. he comes onto the website as anonymous and pumps himself up. if i say something like, oil will reach $1000/bbl, and then say i do my predictions in 500 year cycles. then i will most definately be correct. it is impossible to disprove. no one will be here in 500 years to say otherwise.
guys like JDD suck the blood out of society, they add no value, no former miss brazils, no good investments, nobody read the books. The saddest part is he doesn't even have time to redeem himself, because he believes the shit he says is true. Most people when they screw up appologize and move on. 30 years of lies all rolled up into... anonymous.

Anonymous said...

I have been following JDD for years. He is usually, eventually right in his predictions. The problem is it may take 20 or 30 years for the predictions to come true. He is always waaaaay ahead of his time.

Anonymous said...

He has been a bad boy and was always wrong, never clear, just like in this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8_qt2wHdvA

Actually, this being last year he looks and sounds very healthy/astute. Apparently he did get divorced in Argentina and maybe that put a damper on things for a while. But he has been and continues to be a visionary.

andy wilcox said...

Great books in any event, they did call much before it happened, and now the dynamics of mega-political theory helped me then, and now, reading between the media bs.

The Sovereign Individual was the 2000 book that also had some interesting forecasts, that one will never find in the mainstream, they were the conspiratorial analysts who predicted conspiracy theories in delusional thinking, as a principle, one we see governments use more than people who find enough truth if they dig.

It will unwind, as Gerald Calente and common sense will tell you, this next crash is global, and will easily spin into massive global war as never experienced on earth.

The compounding of secure systems unwinding. A human irony, the reaping of years of lies, bloodshed, and more lies.

LOL

Anonymous said...

It doesn't matter which president the debt exploded under, the fact is debt exploded. Homeowners are upside down on their mortgages and walking away.

I read Davidson's newsletters in 1992 and he was 20 years early predicting today's headlines. He said India and China would demand gold and drive up the price; it's happening now. He said sovereign governments would run out of money to continue the free ride, and they are. What are you laughing about? Davidson was right about a lot of things, just too early to invest in them.

His advice was also too sophisticated for me to follow, as a beginning investor. But his predictions 20 years ago are today's headlines.

chicago Steve said...

Several years ago…sometime in the mid 90’s, I think, Strategic Investment Newsletter had some 5-10 central world themes for the next 20 years….or something like that…It was, I believe, on the front page of the Newsletter..listed one by one…
Two of these…sorry I do not recall the others by memory as well, were..”The Rise of Islam” and the other was “The Unionization of Public Employees” both of which have come to be in spades…the desalination of water might have been another..

My friends do not believe me when I tell them that these issues were fingered and published in a Financial Newsletter years ago. I want to prove you right.

Please tell me where I can get a copy of that SA Newsletter, hopefully you recall it and have a back issue.
I am willing to pay for the research and the mailing and whatever it take..I really want this issue.
Maybe a past subscriber kept it. I did keep this issue for years, but cannot seem to find it in my own archives.
Maybe send me to someone at SA that you know will have it or a blogger?

Thanks in advance.

Paul Cherry said...

Sorry, it seems you have confused the debt with the budget deficit. The Bill Clinton presidency practiced the shell game with the debt and the budget deficit. The Clinton administration manipulated the budget by sliding some of the line items from short-term deficit to long-term debt, and easy but deceiving way to balance the budget. This is verified by the financial facts; which show the deficit was reduced yet, the debt continued to increase. The surplus in budget was paper only, no actual cash to pay down the debt like you suggest. This is well documented and occurs through the use of 'baseline budgeting' an accounting practice adopted under a weakened Nixon presidency by the Progressives in Congress. This practice has recently been abandon by most responsible governments around the world and replaced with the more stable and responsible ‘zero base budgeting’ but the Progressives in Congress refuse to take a responsible financial position. This act of irresponsibility will without any doubt will lead to the demise of the current economic system that will result in a lower standard of living at the very least.

Anonymous said...

incredible, a 4 year long thread;
yeah, it is a bitch to be ahead of your time; in 1981, I was a national videotex coordinator for Tandy Corp. and tried to convince them that we would someday do everything "on-line" and have small handheld computers that we could talk into...

Jon Shirley thought I was a lu-lu and fired me; i started buying gold and silver in 1991 and telling people the world would collapse under the weight of unrestricted debt

i was right, 20 years ahead of my time

Anonymous said...

i wrote the last comment and did not set up an id; my name is Chase Metz and i co-developed the ARGUS software program 30 years ago, which is today the global standard for financial analysis of most commercial real estate in the world; yes, I do things way ahead and while Davidson was guilty of some shady dealings, his forecasts are undeniably true and ones I have followed since the '80's

Anonymous said...

I started reading ... and had a "lifetime subscription" ... to SA from the early 80's. I find his writings very interesting and his projections to be generally correct... but the timeframes were so long, as to be useless, to me. I liked his writings, I found his recommendations to be useless.

DeTaxUS said...

I got an email today that linked to a "controversial video" http://www.absolutewealth.com/insider-video
that turned out to be JDD narrating a PowerPoint presentation that started with:

---------------

On September 21, 2012, a civilization-altering development will jam up our credit lines... mute the roar of our mighty military engine... topple the world's biggest monopoly... and send shockwaves across markets...
Dear Reader:
This is the first time in 17 years that I've made such a shocking announcement.

The last time I made an announcement like this I put the media on trial for treason, and exposed what became one of the greatest political and financial stories of the time.

But since then I have made it a point to stay behind the scenes...

-------------

Well, you get the idea. New predictions provided free if I'd sign-up for his SI newsletter.

So he is back at the helm again.

Anonymous said...

My prediction: Invest in fresh water.
It will become more valuable than gold by 2035, and cause more deadly acts of war than oil today.

kebs said...

How many of you are James Dale Davidson employees? HAHAHAHAHAHA.

jjauregui said...

First JDD's critical earth changing date was July 1st, 2012, then it changed to September 21st, 2012. Why didn't he just pick December 21st, like like all the other scamsters?

Anonymous said...

i've just read Jdd's latest invite to subscribe to SI and what i noticed which causes me to see it as a scam is that On the one hand he strongly predicts the US dollar to become valuless, yet he insists that present and future subscriptions are to be in US dollars,

Tommykey said...

Congratulations Anonymous. You have a very good bullshit detector!

Anonymous said...

he did pick December 31st, i just watched that slideshow for the second time, and it was december 31, but i was thinking the first time i watched it it said september 15th. now i know its probably not the sorta investing i want to do if he cant settle on a true date.im oly by the way just a kid looking for answers


Anonymous said...

I just found "The Story of a One-Term President" buried in a closet, I have no idea why I have it. But I opened it, say the 1994 copyright date and thought I'd check out some of the prognosts. Three specifics caught my eye: Clinton will be a one-termer ("I am as sure of this as I am the sun will rise tomorrow"); within this year (ie 1994), the stock market will enter a "downward spiral", and we will learn that unemployment is much worse than current stats indicate. Pretty humorous, just another doom merchant selling books or newsletters or whatever, but I thought I'd google him to see what would come up. And I found this thread. I surprised people are willing to cut him so much slack on being "right" in his predictions, although "off on timing." Timing is at the heart of the prediction game, especially if you are encouraging people to make investment decisions. Glad I didn't read the book in 1994.

Tommykey said...

@ Anonymous @ 12:30 AM, September 17, 2012.

Thank you for your comments. At best, I would say that JDD may have been good at discerning trends, but bad at specific predictions like the ones you and I cited.

The problem is that he presents himself as someone privy to information the rest of us don't have, and that we should therefore trust him and make decisions based on his predictions.

Anonymous said...

good to find this blog but i have to say, his detractors seem to be focused on stuff like his miss Brazil wife (can you blame him), his lack of a web presence, and his faied predictions.
THe odd fact is that the guy wrote three hard books, not blogs, not e-letters, - 3 bricks and mortar books with a member of parliament. They are extensively well researched and documented. Unlike many of his detractors, I have read them all. Taken in aggregate, his "predictions"" about the future are uncommonly prescient. Anyone who wants to detract can point to an occasional miss or hyperbole. Go ahead. I modeled my investments based on the broad picture in his books (and others like K wave theory, the Coming Economic Earthquake {which was derided, humorously by detractors because it was published - horrors - by I believe Moody bible institute!} and Doug Casey's Crisis investing). They may not have hit on every cylinder but they were grossly ahead of the curve and predicted things like the liquidity crisis, housing crisis, debt issues, bank failures, ascent of islam, fall of communism, the acceleration of totalitarianism using microchip technology by governments to monitor the population, etc. You ignore JDD at your own risk. The Great REckoning was written in the early 90's, i think, and i defy you to find any other cluster of books or thinkers at that time who were as accurate in predicting where we would be 15-20 years later on either side of the political spectrum.

Anonymous said...

I would add to my recent post that the important thing about jdd's newsletter is to take investment recommendations with the usual grain of salt. I rare found that any of these guys on any point on the political spectrum are worth listening to for specific recommendations. RAther, I use it to get a feel for gross political and economic trends. If I see a number of things that coincide with what I am hearing from other sources, such as IBD, or political commentary magazines, OR if I start seeing anything they were talking about showing up in the mainstream media, then I invest accordingly. Of course he is selling newsletters. Did Miss Brazil divorce him and fleece him? Did he make bad financial decisions? Who knows. It may detract from his motives but it doesn't necessarily detract from his perspective. I mean, he could just as easily write a every thing is just rosy newsletter as a gloom and doom one. He put far too much energy into his books to dismiss him as just some con artist.

Anonymous said...

Clearly macro-predictions are impossible to date accurately -- nevertheless Davidson and Rees-Mogg in their three published books are remarkably prescient. I suppose date lining these predictions fifty years in the future would have been safe; who then would have read them.
The nation state is in trouble! These two predicted it. They advised internationalizing ones sovereignty so as to escape the increasingly predatory nature of the Leviathan.
The only thing one can change is oneself. The Leviathan never sleeps. The Leviathan cares not at all for the individual. To be a soverign individual is to be a wild sheep not a tame one. It is rather more difficult and challenging. There are predators in the wild. But the shepherd shears the tame sheep and enjoys lamb chops on a regular and recurring basis. The tame sheep call the shepherd God and his pasture paradise.